Monday, January 27, 2014

Complete list of things that have been caused by global warming

5/3/12, "A complete list of things caused by global warming," numberwatch.co.uk

"AIDS, Afghan poppies destroyed, African holocaust, aged deaths, poppies more potent, Africa devastated,  Africa in conflict, African aid threatenedaggressive weeds, Air France crash, air pockets, air pressure changesairport farewells virtual, airport malaria, Agulhas current, Alaskan towns slowly destroyed, Al Qaeda and Taliban Being Helped, allergy increase, allergy season longer, alligators in the Thames, Alps melting, Amazon a desert, American dream endamphibians breeding earlier (or not)anaphylactic reactions to bee stingsancient forests dramatically changed, animals head for the hills, animals shrinkAntarctic grass flourishes, Antarctic ice grows, Antarctic ice shrinks, Antarctic sea life at risk,   anxiety treatment, algal blooms, archaeological sites threatened, Arctic bogs melt, Arctic in bloom, Arctic ice free, Arctic ice melt faster, Arctic lakes disappearArctic tundra lost, Arctic warming (not), a rose by any other name smells of nothing, asteroid strike risk, asthma, Atlantic less salty, Atlantic more salty,   atmospheric circulation modified, attack of the killer jellyfish, avalanches reduced, avalanches increasedBaghdad snow, Bahrain under waterbananas grow, barbarisation, bats decline beer and bread prices to soar, beer betterbeer worse, beetle infestation, beef shortagebet for $10,000, big melt faster, billion dollar research projects, billion homeless, billions face risk, billions of deathsbird loss accelerating, bird populations dying, bird strikes, bird visitors drop, birds confused, birds decline (Wales), birds driven north, birds face longer migrations, birds on long migrations threatenedbirds return early, birds shrink(Aus), birds shrink (USA), bittern boom ends, blackbirds stop singing, blackbirds threatened, Black Hawk downblizzards, blood contaminated, blue mussels return, borders redrawnbluetongue, brains shrink, brewers droop, bridge collapse (Minneapolis), Britain one big city, Britain SiberianBritain's bananas, British monsoonbrothels struggle, brown Ireland, bubonic plagueBuddhist temple threatenedbuilding collapse, building season extension, bushfires,   butterflies move northbutterflies reeling, butterfly saved, carbon crimes, caribou decline, Cambodian sex trade fuelled, camel deathscancer, cancer deaths in England, cannibalismcataracts, cats more amorous, caterpillar biomass shift, cave paintings threatenedchagas disease, childhood insomnia, children's mental health, chocolate shortage, Cholera, circumcision in decline, cirrus disappearance, civil unrest, cloud increaseclownfish get lost, coast beauty spots lost, cockroach migration, cod go south,  coffee threatened, coffee berry borer, coffee berry disease, cold climate creatures survivecold spells, cold spells (Australia), colder waters  (Long Island), cold wave (India), cold weather (world), cold winters, computer models, conferences, conflict, conflict with Russiaconsumers foot the bill, coral bleaching, coral fish suffer, coral reefs dying, coral reefs grow, coral reefs shrinkcoral reefs twilight cost of trillions, cougar attackscrabgrass menace cradle of civilisation threatened, creatures move uphill, crime increase, crocodile sex, crocodiles driven from water, crops devastated, crop failures increase, cross-breeding, crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems, cryptococcal disease, curriculum changecyclones (Australia),   damselflies forced back to UK, danger to kid's healthDarfur, Dartford Warbler plaguedaylight increase, deadly virus outbreaks, death rate increase (US), death rate drop, deaths to reach 6 million, decades of progress at risk, Dengue hemorrhagic fever, depression, desert advancedesert retreatdestruction of the environmentdig sites threatened,  disasters, diseases move north, diving reefs closed, dog diseasedozen deadly diseases - or not, drought,    ducks and geese decline, dust bowl in the corn beltdust doublesearlier pollen seasonEarth axis tilt, Earth biodiversity crisis, Earth crumbling, Earth dying, Earth even hotter, Earth light dimming, Earth lopsided, Earth melting, Earth morbid fever, Earth on fast track, Earth past point of no return, Earth slowing downEarth spins faster, Earth to explode, earth upside downearthquakes, earthquakes redux, El NiƱo intensification, end of the world as we know it, erosion, emerging infections, encephalitis, English villages lost, equality threatened, Europe simultaneously baking and freezing,  eutrophication, everyplace hit hardest, expansion of university climate groups, extinctions (apes, human, civilisation, koalaslizards logic, Inuit, smallest butterfly, cod,  penguins, pikas, polar bears,   possumswalrus,  tigerstoadsturtles, pandaspenguins, plants, ladybirds, rhinoceros, salmon, troutwild flowers, woodlicea million species, half of all animal and plant speciesmountain speciesnot polar bears, barrier reef, leaches, salamanders, tropical insects, flowers) experts muzzled, extreme changes to California, fading fall foliagefamine, farmers benefit, farmers go under, farm output boostfarming soil declinefashion disaster, fever, figurehead sacked, fir cone bonanza, fires fanned in Nepal, fish bigger, fish catches drop, fish downsize,   fish deaf,  fish feminised, fish get lost, fish head north, fish lopsided, fish shrinkingfish stocks at risk, fish stocks decline, five million illnesses, flesh eating disease, flies on Everestflood patterns change, floods,  floods of beaches and cities, flood of migrants, flood preparation for crisis, flora dispersed, Florida economic decline, flowers in peril, flowers wilt, flying squirrels move up, fog increase in San Francisco, fog decrease in San Francisco, food poisoningfood prices rise, food prices soar, food production increasedfood safety affected, food security threat (SA)football team migration,   forest decline, forest expansion, foundations threatened, foundations increase grants, frog with extra heads, frosts, frostbite, frost damage increased,   fungi fruitful, fungi invasion, fungi rot the world, games change, Garden of Eden wilts, geese decline in Hampshire, genetic changes, genetic diversity decline, gene pools slashed, geysers imperiled, giant icebergs (Australia), giant icebergs (Arctic), giant oysters invade,  giant pythons invade, giant squid migrate, gingerbread houses collapse, glacial earthquakes, glacial retreat,   glacier grows (California), glaciers on Snowden, glacier wrapped, glass melts, global coolingglowing cloudsgolf course to drown, golf Masters wrecked, grain output drop (China), grain output stagnating (India), grandstanding, grasslands wetter, gravity shiftGreat Barrier Reef 95% deadgreat tits cope, greening of the NorthGrey whales lose weight, Gulf Stream failure, habitat loss, haggis threatened, Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome,    harvest increase, harvest shrinkage, hay fever epidemic, health affected, health of children harmed, health risks, health risks (even more), heart deaths, heart disease, heart attacks and strokes (Australia), heat waves, hedgehogs bald, hibernation affected,   hibernation ends too soon, hibernation ends too latehomeless 50 million, home runs, hornets,  human development faces unprecedented reversal, human fertility reduced, human health risk, human race oblivion, human rights violations, hurricaneshurricane reduction, hurricanes fewer, hurricanes more intense, hurricanes nothydropower problems, hyperthermia deaths, hyphthermia deaths, ice age, ice hockey extinct, ice sheet growth, ice sheet shrinkage, icebergsice sheet tipping pointillegal immigration, illness and death, inclement weather, India drowning, infrastructure failure (Canada)indigestion, industry threatened, infectious diseases,  inflation in China, insect explosion, insect invasion, insurance premium rises, Inuit displacement, Inuit poisoned, Inuit suing, invasion of alien worms, invasion of Antarctic aliensinvasion of Asian carp, invasion of cane toadsinvasion of caterpillarsinvasion of catsinvasion of crabgrass, invasion of herons, invasion of jellyfish, invasion of king crabs, invasion of lampreys, invasion of midges, invasion of pine beetles, invasion of rats (China)invasion of slugs island disappears, islands sinking, Italy robbed of pasta, itchier poison ivy, Japan's cherry blossom threatenedjellyfish explosion, jets fall from skyKew Gardens taxed, kidney stones, killer cornflakes, killing us, kitten boom, koalas leaves inedible, koalas under threat, krill decline lake empties, lake shrinking and growing, landslides, landslides of ice at 140 mph, large trees decline, lawsuits increaselawsuit successful,  lawyers' income increased (surprise surprise!)lawyers want more, legionnaires' surge lives lost, lizards super intelligent, lives saved, lobsters growLoch Ness monster dead, locust plagues suppressed, low oxygen zones threaten sea life, lush growth in rain forests,  Lyme diseaseMajor vegetation shiftsMalaria,   Malaria declinemalnutrition, mammoth dung melt, mammoth ivory bonanza, manatees battle, mango harvest fails, Maple production advanced, Maple syrup shortage, marmots fatter, marine diseases, marine food chain decimated, Meaching (end of the world), Meat eating to stop, Mediterranean rises, megacryometeors, Melanoma, Melanoma decline, mental health decline, mental illness, methane emissions from plants, methane burps, methane runaway, melting permafrost, Mexican climate migrant flood, Middle Kingdom convulses, migrationmigratory birds huge losses, microbes to decompose soil carbon more rapidly, milk production lost, minorities hit, monkeys at riskmonkeys on the move, Mont Blanc grows, monuments imperiled, moose dying, more bad air days,   more research neededmortality increased, mosquitoes adapting, mountain (Everest) shrinking,  mountaineers fears,  mountains break up, mountains green and flowering,   mountains taller, mortality lower, Mubarak fall, murder rate increase,  musk ox decline, Myanmar cyclone, narwhals at risk, narwhals suffocate, National Parks damaged, National security implications, native wildlife overwhelmed, natural disasters  quadruple, neurological diseasesnew islands, next ice age, NFL threatened, Nile delta damaged, noctilucent clouds, no effect in IndiaNorthwest Passage opened, nuclear plants bloomoaks dyingoaks move north obesity, oblivion, ocean acidification, ocean acidification faster, ocean dead spots, ocean dead zones unleashed, ocean deserts expand, ocean salt extremes, ocean oxygen crisisocean waves speed upOlympic Games to end, opera house to be destroyed, outdoor hockey threatened,   owls turn brown, oxygen depletion zones, oyster herpes, ozone repair slowed, ozone risepeat bogs problem, peat bogs no problem, penguin chicks frozen, penguin chicks smaller, penguins in the dark, penguin populations devastated, penguins replaced by jellyfish, penguins sex lives affected, personal carbon rationingpest outbreaks, pests increasepets in danger, phenology shiftspines decline, pirate population decrease, pirates run rampant, plankton blooms,   plankton plummeting, plankton wiped out, plants lose protein, plants march northplants move uphill polar bears aggressivepolar bears cannibalistic, polar bears deaf,  polar bears drowning,  polar bears fewer cubspolar tours scrappedpollination halved, porpoise astray, profits collapsepsychiatric illness psychological effectspuffin decline, pushes poor women into prostitution, rabid bats,  radars taken out, rail network threatenedrailroad tracks deformed, rainfall increase, rainforest destructionrape wave, refugeesreindeer endangered, reindeer larger, release of ancient frozen viruses, resorts disappear, respiratory diseases worsenrice less fragrant, rice production fall, rice threatened, rice yields crash,  rift on Capitol Hill, rioting and nuclear war,   river flow impacted, river rerouted, rivers raised, road accidents, roads wear out, robins rampant,   rocky peaks crack apart, roof of the world a desert, rooftop bars, Ross river disease,    Russia under pressure, salinity reduction, salinity increaseSalmonella,  salmon stronger, sardine run unpredictable, satellites accelerate, Schmallenberg virusschool closures, sea level rise, sea level rise faster, sea snot, seals mating more, seismic activity, sewer bills rise, severe thunderstorms, sex change, sexual dysfunction sexual promiscuity, shark attacks, sharks booming, sharks hybridise, sharks moving north, sheep change colour, sheep shrink, shop closures, short-nosed dogs endangeredshrimp sex problems, shrinking ponds, shrinking sheep shrinking shrine, Sidney Opera House wiped out, ski resorts threatened, slavery, skinks impacted, slow death smaller brainssmog, snowfall decrease, snowfall increase, snowfall heavy snow thicker,  soaring food prices, societal collapse, soil change, soil subsidence, songbirds change eating habits, sour grapes, soybean crop to drop, space junk increase, space problem, spectacular orchids, spider danger in UK, spider bites to increase, spiders getting bigger, spiders invade Scotlandsquid aggressive giants, squid larger, squid population explosion, squid tamed, squirrels reproduce earlierstarfish sperm eaten by parasites, stingray invasion, storm damage costs rise, storms wetterstratospheric cooling, street crime to increasesubsidence, suicide, sunset displacedswordfish in the Baltic, Tabasco tragedy, taxes, tea flavour change, tectonic plate movementteenage prostitution,   terrorists (India), thatched cottages at risk, threat to peace, ticks move northward (Sweden), tides rise, tigers eat people, tigers drown, tomatoes rot, tornado outbreak, tourism increase, toxic bacteria, toxic seaweedtrade barriers, trade winds weakened, traffic jamstransport snarl, transportation threatened, tree foliage increase (UK),   tree growth slowed, tree growth faster, trees grow too fast, trees in trouble, trees less colourfultrees more colourful, trees lush, trees on Antarctica, treelines change, tropics expansion, tropopause raised, truffle shortagetruffles down truffles increase, turtles crash, turtle feminised, turtles lay earlier, UFO sightings, UK coastal impact, UK Katrina,  vampire batsVenice floodedvolcanic eruptionsvolcanoes awakened in Icelandwalnuts threatened, walrus pups orphanedwalrus stampedewalruses come ashore, wars over water, wars sparked, wars threaten billions, wasps, water bills double,   water shortage to increase vegetarianism, wave of natural disasters, waves bigger, weather out of its mind, weather patterns awry, weather patterns last longer, Western aid cancelled outWest Nile fever, whale beachings, whales lose weight, whales move northwhales wiped out, wheat rust in Syria, wheat yields crushed in Australiawild boars thrive, wildfireswind shift, wind reduced, winds stronger, winds weaker,  wine - Australian baked, , wine industry damage (California) wine industry disaster (US) wine - more English, wine - no more French , wine -  England too hot, wine -German boonwine passĆ© (Napa), wine - Scotland bestwine stronger, winters in Britain colder, winter in Britain dead, witchcraft executions, wolverine decline, wolverines vanish, wolves eat more moose, wolves eat less, women cheat on vacation, workers laid off, World at war, World War 4Yellow fever, zebra mussel threat, zoonotic diseases.
and all on 0.006 deg C per year! 

Advice of any omissions (with sources) or broken links is welcome at warmlist@numberwatch.co.uk

Note: All links were live at time of posting. Inevitably some will disappear, particularly from Yahoo News. 
Thanks to correspondents for additional entries; especially, as always, Our Man in Puerto Rico. Also, thanks to "Scraperguy" for the script to form the following:
The dead link collection
Acne, Africa hit hardest,  African summer frost, agricultural land increase, Alaska reshaped, anxietyArctic tundra to burnatmospheric defiance, bananas destroyedbeer shortage, bird distributions change, blizzards, boredom, brain eating amoebae, business opportunities, business risksBritish gardens change, budget increases, cardiac arrestcataractschallenges and opportunitiescloud strippingcremation to end, damages equivalent to $200 billiondermatitisdesert life threatened, diarrhoea, disappearance of coastal cities, Dolomites collapse, drought in distant regions, drowning people, early marriages, early spring, Earth spinning out of control, Earth wobbling, evolution accelerating, extinctions (bats,    pigmy possums, koalas, turtles, orang-utanelephants, tigers, gorillas, whales, frogs,) faintingfish catches rise flames stoked, footpath erosion, glacial growth, global dimming, god melts, Gore omnipresence, Great Lakes dropharmful algae, hazardous waste sites breached, high court debates, HIV epidemic, human health improvement, ice shelf collapse, jet stream drifts north, lake and stream productivity decline, lightning related insurance claims, little response in the atmospherelost $350 billion, Lyme diseasemarine dead zoneMaple production advancedmental illness (Alberta), migration difficult (birds), mountains melting, mudslides, oceans noisieroyster diseases, ozone loss, Pacific dead zone, plankton destabilised, plankton loss, plant viruses,   polar bears starvepsychosocial disturbancespopcorn rise, rainfall reduction,   riches, rivers dry up, rockfalls,  ruins ruined, skin cancer, smelt down, snowfall reduction, stick insects, stormwater drains stressed, teenage drinking, terrorism, tree beetle attacks,  trees could return to Antarctic, tree growth increased, tsunamis, tundra plant life boost, uprooted - 6 million, Vampire moths, violin decline, walrus displaced, war, war between US and Canada, water scarcity (20% of increase), water stress, water supply unreliabilityweeds,   white Christmas dream ends, wine - harm to Australian industry,   World bankruptcy, World-famous places threatened, World in crisis, World in flames,

Suggestions for replacement links are welcome.
Total (dead and alive) 883
Last updated  05/03/12
Index, searchbox and begging bowl"

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11/29/2007, "Everything is Caused by Global Warming (600+ links)," American Thinker, Christopher Alleva


"Dr. John Brignell, a British engineering professor, runs a website called numberwatch. He has compiled what has to be the most complete collection of links to media stories ascribing the cause of everything under the sun to global warming.  He has already posted more than six-hundred links.
The site's stated mission is to expose all the "scares, scams, junk, panics and flummery cooked up by the media, politicians, bureaucrats and so-called scientists and others that try to confuse the public with wrong numbers"  Professor Brignell's motto is "Working to Combat Math Hysteria."
This exercise is not merely a lark to show the abject absurdity of this global warming nonsense. Brignell wrote a great book titled  Sorry Wrong Number, The Abuse of Measurement on this very subject."...
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Record high in US in 2013 say Big Government is Greatest Threat, Democrats and Independents at 56% and 71% up from 48% and 64% in 2011-Gallup poll

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56% of democrats and 71% of independents in 2013 up from 48% and 64% in 2011. 92% of Republicans in 2013 say Big Government is biggest threat. Scroll down for last chart showing 2009 and 2011.

12/18/13, "Record High in U.S. Say Big Government Greatest Threat," Gallup poll, Jeffrey M. Jones

"Now 72% say it is greater threat than big business or big labor."

"Seventy-two percent of Americans say big government is a greater threat to the U.S. in the future than is big business or big labor, a record high in the nearly 50-year history of this question. The prior high for big government was 65% in 1999 and 2000. Big government has always topped big business and big labor, including in the initial asking in 1965, but just 35% named it at that time.

The latest update comes from a Dec. 5-8 poll. Gallup has documented a steady increase in concern about big government since 2009, rising from 55% in March 2009 to 64% in November 2011 and 72% today.
2013 by Political party
This suggests that government policies specific to the period, such as the Affordable Care Act -- perhaps coupled with recent revelations of government spying tactics by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden -- may be factors.

Currently, 21% name big business as the greatest threat, while 5%, a record low, say big labor. The high point for big labor was 29% in 1965. No more than 11% of Americans have chosen big labor since 1995, clearly reflecting the decline of the labor movement in the United States in recent decades.

The historical high choosing big business, 38%, came in 2002, after a series of corporate scandals rocked major corporations including Enron and Tyco. Also at that time, Americans may have been less willing to choose government given the rally in support for government institutions and officials after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Americans were also more likely to view big business as a big threat during the recent recession, with more than three in 10 choosing it in 2008 and 2009, a time when many large corporations, including financial and automotive companies, failed or were in danger of failing without government intervention. But fewer Americans now view big business as a threat -- the current 21% is the lowest Gallup has measured since 1983....

Each party group currently rates big government as the greatest threat to the country, including a record-high 92% of Republicans and 71% of independents, as well as 56% of Democrats. Democrats are most likely of the partisan groups to name big business as the biggest threat, at 36%; relatively few Republicans, 4%, view big business as the most threatening.

Democrats are more likely to see
government as a threat when a Republican is in office; however, they tend to see government as less threatening than Republicans do, and their concern about big government topped out at 62% in 2005 under Bush. During the Johnson, Nixon, Carter, and Reagan administrations, party differences were much more modest than they are today. ...

Implications

Americans have consistently viewed big government as a greater threat to the United States than either big business or big labor, but never more than they do now. That may be partly a reaction to an administration that favors the use of government to solve problems. Also, the revelation of widespread government monitoring of U.S. Internet activity may be a factor in raising Americans' concern about the government. The threat of big business may seem diminished now, during a relatively calm period for big business, with rising stock values and relatively few major corporate scandals such as occurred in the early 2000s. Also, the labor movement is far less influential in U.S. policy today than in the past, including in 1965, when Gallup first asked the question.

In the future, Americans likely will continue to view big government as the greatest threat of the three, partly because of Republicans' reluctance to rely on government to solve problems, and because Democrats and independents are also inclined to view big government as a greater threat than big business or big labor. But the percentage of Americans viewing big government as the greatest threat will also likely to continue to vary, in response to current conditions in the political and business environments."

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Comment: Big business and big labor may seem "less influential" today as stated above but the two partner with federal government today so in important ways are more powerful than ever. The article cites "rising stock prices" as a reason people may not be upset with big business. This may be so but again not reality. Today's stock prices are more a reflection of federal reserve actions, not business health. ed.

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"The Gallup poll was conducted from Dec. 5 to 8 and was based on interviews with more than 1,000 people across the country."

12/18/13, "Gallup: Record high fear 'big government'," The Hill, Julian Hattem

"A record number of Americans think that “big government” is the biggest threat to the country, according to a new poll.

The Gallup survey released on Wednesday showed that 72 percent of people say that “big government” is a bigger threat to the country than “big labor” or “big business.”

That’s the highest percentage of Americans who have expressed the preference since the pollster began asking the question in 1965.

According to the poll, just 21 percent of Americans cite “big business” as the greatest threat to the country, and only 5 percent have concerns about “big labor.”

The recent wariness about the government could be partly due to troubles with the recent rollout of ObamaCare, as well as revelations about surveillance from the National Security Agency (NSA), Gallup noted.

Though Republicans have driven the recent trend and are more concerned about government overreach, they are not alone. The survey found that 56 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents also fear “big government.”

The new findings chart a steady increase in concern about the government over recent years, since a low point in 2001 that could be partly attributable to sentiments following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

The size of the federal government has certainly grown in recent years.

Though there are only imperfect metrics of measuring the pace of regulatory activity at the federal government, most accounts show that federal power is increasing every year.

Fears about "big government" have always topped the poll since Gallup began asking the question nearly 50 years ago.

The previous high mark for Americans’ concerns about the federal government was in 1999 and 2000, when 65 percent of the public said they feared it more than labor or business.

The Gallup poll was conducted from Dec. 5 to 8 and was based on interviews with more than 1,000 people across the country." via Free Republic

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In 2011 democrats dissatisfaction with big government increased to 48% up from 32% in 2009:

12/12/11, "In U.S., Fear of Big Government at Near-Record Level,"
Gallup poll, Elizabeth Mendes

By polit. party, trend
In 2011, "Democrats lead increase in concerns about big government."
 
"Americans' concerns about the threat of big government continue to dwarf those about big business and big labor, and by an even larger margin now than in March 2009. The 64% of Americans who say big government will be the biggest threat to the country is just one percentage point shy of the record high, while the 26% who say big business is down from the 32% recorded during the recession. Relatively few name big labor as the greatest threat....

Democrats Lead Increase in Concern About Big Government

Almost half of Democrats now say big government is the biggest threat to the nation, more than say so about big business, and far more than were concerned about big government in March 2009. The 32% of Democrats concerned about big government at that time -- shortly after President Obama took office -- was down significantly from a reading in 2006, when George W. Bush was president.

By contrast, 82% of Republicans and 64% of independents today view big government as the biggest threat, slightly higher percentages than Gallup found in 2009.

Lower percentages of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are now concerned about big business than was the case in 2009."...chart above from Gallup, 12/12/11





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Saturday, December 7, 2013

December 7, 1941, 2400 Americans were killed by the Japanese at Pearl Harbor. This began World War II

"On the morning of Sunday, December 7, 1941, Japanese bombers, fighter planes, and torpedo planes attacked the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. This sneak attack brought the United States into World War II."

"Tactically, Pearl Harbor was a U.S. defeat. In all, more than 2,400 soldiers, sailors and Marines were killed and almost 1,200 wounded, as well as more than 1,000 civilians, most of them by U.S. anti-aircraft artillery shells landing in residential areas.
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Dad with his Stearman biplane
In all, eight battleships were sunk or damaged so badly it took years for them to be repaired. Two, including the USS Arizona, were total losses. In addition, 10 other major ships were heavily damaged. In addition, 165 airplanes were destroyed.

Japanese losses numbered 185 airmen and sailors, 29 aircraft, five mini-submarines and a large submarine.

But the Japanese miscalculated. Their primary target, the U.S. Navy's aircraft carriers, were out of the harbor on exercises. And when initial reports of success and fear that a response by U.S. forces was imminent led to cancellation of a planned third strike, the Imperial Japanese navy left largely undamaged the vital fuel tank farms and submarine facility at Pearl Harbor.

The carriers, their vital fuel intact, and the long arm of the submarine fleet would take the war home to the Japanese. What began at Pearl Harbor ended with Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It took almost four years, but Pearl Harbor ended up as a strategic victory for the United States."

12/6/13, "Pearl Harbor memories fading with time," USA Today, John Andrew Prime. top image from National Archives. Image of pilot is my father and a Stearman biplane in the 1940's. He was an Air Force pilot, flew missions in the Pacific, B-29's, and sometimes biplanes. He's still living as of December 7, 2013 and is 91. At the end of the war, he flew to Guam and picked up some surviving American soldiers who had been captured by the Japanese. He says the men weren't in very good shape.


  • Born in Brooklyn, 1922.

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Monday, August 26, 2013

Global warming 'pause' is widely accepted by scientists, so it's vital to ask if government will 'pause' its expensive use of taxpayer dollars to 'cure' it until picture becomes clearer-BBC News program, Neil

A BBC discussion suggests a pause in confiscation of taxpayer dollars for CO2 induced terror that's not happening. Temperatures have remained flat since 1998, while CO2 has increased globally (though US CO2 emissions have plunged). Billions of taxpayer dollars were diverted based on predictions that didn't happen which "peer reviewed literature regards as established yet unexplained:"

7/22/13, "Andrew Neil on Ed Davey climate change interview critics," BBC, Andrew Neil

Multi-billion dollar "spending decisions, paid for by consumers and taxpayers
...might not have been taken (at least to the same degree or with the same haste) if global warming was not quite the imminent threat it has been depicted....The recent standstill in global temperatures is a puzzle. Experts do not know why it is occurring or how long it will last....There is no consensus. Extensive peer-reviewed literature regards it as established yet unexplained. It is widely accepted that the main climate models which inform government policy did not predict it."...(subhead, "Reputable evidence") 

"The Sunday Politics interview with Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey on July 14 provoked widespread reaction in the twittersphere and elsewhere, which was only to be expected given the interview was about the latest developments in global warming and the implications for government policy

The Sunday Politics remit and interview duration means we are able to carry out proper forensic interviews on such matters....Many of the criticisms of the Davey interview seem to misunderstand the purpose of a Sunday Politics interview.
 
This was neatly summed up in a Guardian blog by Dana Nuccitelli, who works for a multi-billion dollar US environmental business (Tetra Tech) and writes prodigiously about global warming and related matters from a very distinct perspective.    

He finished by saying: "[Andrew] Neil focussed only on the bits of evidence that seemed to support his position".

This is partly right. We did come at Mr Davey with a particular set of evidence, which was well-sourced from mainstream climate science. But it was nothing to do with advocating a "position".
 
First, the Sunday Politics does not have a position on any of the subjects on which it interrogates people. Second, it is the job of the interviewer to assemble evidence from authoritative sources which best challenge the position of the interviewee. There is hardly any purpose in presenting evidence which supports the interviewee's position - that is his or her job.
 
It is for viewers to decide how well the interviewee's position holds up under scrutiny and the strength of the contrary evidence or points put to him or her.
 
Reputable evidence
 
It is how the Sunday Politics approaches all the longer forensic interviews on the programme, no matter the subject or the interviewee. It is how it will approach any future interview with a leading light of the global warming sceptic camp. They can expect just as fair, forensic and robust an interview as Mr Davey.


Taking an opposite or challenging position from the person being interviewed is pretty much standard practice in long-form broadcast interviews.

But the contrary position has to be based on reputable evidence. The Guardian blog and other critics on Twitter alleged that the challenges put to Mr Davey were based on errors, false evidence or parroted the perspective of "deniers". That is untrue.

The main purpose of the interview was to establish if the government thought the
recent and continuing pause in global temperatures meant it should re-think its policies in response to global warming.

This is a vital policy issue since the strategy of this government and the previous Labour government to decarbonise the economy involves multi-billion pound spending decisions, paid for by consumers and taxpayers, which might not have been taken (at least to the same degree or with the same haste) if global warming was not quite the imminent threat it has been depicted. 

It might also be argued that challenging interviews on matters in which there is an overwhelming consensus in Westminster - but not necessarily among voters who pay for both the licence fee and the government's energy policies - is a particularly legitimate purpose of public-service broadcasting.

No consensus


The recent standstill in global temperatures is a puzzle. Experts do not know why it is occurring or how long it will last. 


Climate scientists have proffered a variety of possible explanations. But there is no consensus. 

Extensive peer-reviewed literature regards it as established yet unexplained. It is widely accepted that the main climate models which inform government policy did not predict it (which raises interesting issues of the models' predictions about the future course of temperatures).

For many climate scientists the plateau - which may or may not have long-term significance - has come as something of a surprise

Recently Nature, which has published extensively on global warming, called it one of climate science's greatest mysteries.

So it is legitimate to ask if the government takes the pause seriously and if it has any implications for policy ie, if there is a pause in warming, is there a case for the
government to pause or slowdown its expensive efforts to decarbonise the economy until the picture becomes clearer?

The graph we presented illustrating the temperature plateau was not constructed by the Sunday Politics but taken from a website, produced by Phil Jones, a leading figure at the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, which works closely with the UK Met Office and whose work, especially on temperature measurements, has done so much to inform government policy here and abroad. The basis of the graph can
be found here.

The graph we presented on screen is pretty much identical to the post-1980 data in the graph created by the CRU. It is based on HadCRUT 3 data rather than HadCRUT 4, but the discrepancy between the two is small.

We made it clear on air that the graph
had been "smoothed" - not by us but by the CRU - to iron out fluctuations and to highlight the trend.

This is legitimate for TV when viewers only have a view seconds to take in a visual. We used this graph in the belief that the CRU would not do the smoothing in a manner that distorted either the post-1980s rise or the post late-1990s plateau in temperatures.


Man-made heating
 
We chose 1980 as the start date for the graph because that is roughly when the IPCC says man-made warming became the dominant factor in global temperature rises.

The IPCC said in 2007: "The rapid warming observed since the 1970s has occurred in a period when the increase in greenhouse gases has dominated over all other factors."


It said that, prior to then in the 20th century, any man-made heating was offset by other natural variations in the climate; but that human-released greenhouse gasses are the dominant explanation of the rise in temperatures post the 1970s.

Global temperatures between 1940-80 were broadly constant. They started rising in 1980; and especially here.

So it is reasonable to start the graph circa 1980 to show how temperatures rose thereafter - overwhelmingly as a result of greenhouse gasses, according to the IPCC - until the late 1990s; and then started to plateau, albeit at a high level compared with the rest of the 20th century.

Some have detected a slight decline in temperatures since circa 2004 but we did not dwell on that since it is statistically insignificant.

The 2007 IPCC study reported that the likely rise in equilibrium temperatures in response
to a doubling of C02 in the atmosphere was between 2C and 4.5C, with 3C "most probable" (a slip of the tongue on air said 3%, but it was clear what was meant).

The plateau has made some climate scientists wonder about the efficacy of the IPCC central forecast, which has been seminal in informing official policy, and some are re-considering the IPCC's measurement of climate sensitivity i.e. the extent to which temperatures rise in response to any given
amount of C02 emissions. 

There are reports in the media that the upcoming 2013 IPCC report might conclude that the climate is indeed more insensitive to emissions than previous concluded. We have no views on such matters, other than they are worthy of examination and debate - and have policy implications.

Mr Nuccitelli points out
that temperatures have plateaued in the past, which is true. But since that was before, according to the IPCC, global warming became the dominant factor in temperature rises, it is not clear past plateaux are relevant to this debate; and the current hiatus is one of the longer ones.

It is also not clear from his blog if Mr Nuccitelli denies there is a plateau.

He has been a voluble exponent of a controversial "missing heat" theory that somehow the extra energy from global warming has started to bypass the atmosphere (hence the stalling in surface temperatures) and is storing up in the deep ocean; so perhaps he does accept the plateau.

 
Principle point
 
Mr Davey said in his interview
- and others echoed the point later - that we should not concentrate just on land temperatures, but look at what was happening to ocean temperatures and the polar ice melt for
evidence that global warming was continuing unabated.

This is a reasonable point. But in a 15-minute interview we wanted to stick with the metric that most viewers would understand and which has been used most to judge the course of global warming in public debate i.e. surface temperatures, which are central to the science and, for viewers, the principle point of interest.

At the Sunday Politics we are also used to public figures who try to change the metric when the one they've put their faith in does not behave as expected. We try not to let that happen.


Moreover, the purpose of the interview was not to question all aspects of climate science, just the one metric that has commanded most attention. Other possible indicators of climate change - ice melt, ocean temperatures and extreme weather events - are a matter of widespread debate in which the science most certainly is not "settled".

For example, trends in Arctic ice decline and ocean warming are not necessarily irrefutable evidence of continued global warming, though many climate scientists believe they are indeed caused by global warming.

Others point out that satellite observations began in 1979 and caught a decline in Arctic ice already in progress. So the origin of the decline could be many decades ago, and might not have been started by
man (though global warming could now be exacerbating a previous "natural" melting trend).

There is evidence of great variability in sea ice in the Arctic from historical records
and old newspaper cuttings from decades ago reporting the disappearance of the ice.


A new paper by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) suggest that Greenland ice sheet melting is related to solar activity and "a considerable fraction of the current withdrawal could be a natural occurrence".

These are fascinating and contested matters and could easily be pursued in future interviews. The Sunday Politics has no views on their efficacy; but they are issues worthy of investigation and interrogation.

The question in the interview which stated that the Arctic ice melt this year is "normal" should have been qualified: it is normal in the sense of the much greater normal summer ice melt of recent years i.e. it has not got worse - but even that cannot be said for sure until September when the ice melt reaches its greatest extent. This illustrates that we cannot do justice to the canon of global warming in 15 minutes - and justifies the decision to stick to one well-known and crucial metric.


It is not true to say - though it was said by Mr Davey and subsequently - that we ignored ocean temperatures altogether. The HadCRUT data measures surface temperatures across the globe, including ocean surface temperatures.

There is a huge debate in climate science over the relationship between global warming and ocean temperatures. As pointed out above some scientists (and Mr Nuccitelli) believe that global warming is
causing the depths of the oceans to heat up and that one day this heat will be released.

This is widely contested and even, by some, dismissed. The data is short-lived and contentious (the "warming" at depths of many hundreds of metres is being measured in hundredths of a degree C). We did not have time to go there in the interview.

We stuck to the advice of Professor Judith Curry
, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology and a world authority on global warming, that: "…
the best (most mature, highest quality) data set for inferring recent climate change is the surface temperature data record."

Mr Nuccitelli is also one of the authors of the recent study of climate science abstracts which concludes that 97% of climate scientists are part of the global warming consensus.

This survey has been quoted several times by Mr Davey in interviews to assert that the science is "settled"; he did so again in our interview. It was reasonable to point out that the methodology and conclusions of the survey have been fiercely challenged by Prof Richard Tol, a respected academic quoted extensively in the Stern Report. Other academics have their misgivings.

There is now an argument underway between critics and authors about how much raw data they are
prepared to make available for examination; and that neither the academic publication which carried it nor the Guardian will give Professor Tol a right of reply.

These are matters for academia. We simply wanted to point out, when Mr Davey called it in aid, that the survey, especially given the strongly partisan positions of the authors, is not uncontested.

More important, the survey's definition of "global warming consensus" is so wide as to include most who are regarded as sceptics, most of whom agree that global warming is happening and that there is a man-made contribution.

The survey was recently attacked in testimony to the US Congress by Dr Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama Hunstville, which carries out world-renowned and heavily-relied upon satellite measurements of global temperatures.

He told Congress the definition of consensus in the survey was so widely drawn as to be "innocuous" and would include him within the consensus even though he is often depicted by people like Mr Nuccitelli as being on the sceptical wing of climate science.

Unfounded claims


The differences that separate climate scientists even within the "consensus" are over the speed and extent of warming, the consequences (economic and environmental) and the importance of other climate factors which are not man-made and which may affect the climate's sensitivity to the rise in C02 emissions.

Only those who have been dismissed as "deniers" deny that man is playing any role whatsoever, though the word is often applied to sceptics too (and even, ridiculously, to the Sunday Politics!).


Contrary to many unfounded claims on Twitter, the research work behind our interview and the evidence it gathered was not influenced by any deniers. We relied on Nature magazine, the work of the Climate Research Unit, Professor Judith Curry of Georgia Tech and Professor Hans von Storch of Hamburg University among others, all of whom think man-made global warming is real and some of whom have been at the very heart of the climate science community. We quoted no deniers or even sceptics. All our evidence came from mainstream scientists who do not doubt the fundamental tenets of global warming.

Professor Tol is a climate economist.
He has strong views on the economic impact of climate change. But we are not aware he denies it is happening.

At no stage in the interview was it ever claimed that global warming is not real or that it is not man-made. It is not for the Sunday Politics to take such positions.


 Our focus was on a global temperature plateau which could be a challenge to the forecasts of climate models which have determined government policy. The plateau could continue for the foreseeable future or melt away as temperatures resume their upward trajectory. 
 
The Sunday Politics has no views on such matters. We have put the existence of this plateau into the broader public domain. It is for others to determine its significance."


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1/18/13, Climate change: scientists puzzle over halt in global warming, Der Spiegel, by Axel Bojanowski (translation from German)

"The British Met Office forecast even more recently that the temperature interval could continue at a high level until the end of 2017 - despite the rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Then global warming would pause 20 years."..."The exact reasons of the temperature standstill since 1998, are not yet understood, says climate researcher Doug Smith of the Met Office."...







UK Met Office chart via Der Spiegel










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